$1,200 NOW ANTICIPATED THIS YEAR

       Gold will hit a new historic high of US$1,200 (Bt40,300) per ounce this year on anticipation of a continuing depreciation in the US dollar, predicts YLG Bullion International CEO Pawan Nawawattanasub.
       The new high will possibly be marked by gold subsequently remaining above $1,000 throughout an entire week for the first time this year, she said.
       "I admit predicting the gold price is difficult. Trading above the $1,000level could be due mainly to speculaฌtion, because the wholesale price now is only $750 to $850 an ounce. Thus, trading in gold carries a high risk right now. It's inappropriate for longterm investment, and investors should trade daily instead," she said.
       YLG Bullion International, Thailand's leading trader of 99.99percent bullion, said 60 per cent of its cusฌtomers now were speculators, up from 40 per cent not very long ago.
       The global price moves in a range of $1,000 to $1,030 an ounce, and its next resistance will be $1,080 if the price punches through the $1,030barrier.
       However, gold will change to a downward cycle immediately if the price falls below $980 an ounce.
       The company late next month will unveil online trading for physical gold, she said.
       The system will undergo a trial run, and YLG's existing customers are expected to be the first group to use it.
       Online trading is expected to raise the company's number of wholesale clients dramatically over the next three years, from 300 now to 5,000.
       The company's wholesale cusฌtomers account for 60 per cent of the total value of imported gold.
       Pawan said its YLG Bullion & Futures subsidiary planned to increase its market share in goldfutures trading to 15 per cent by yearend, from 10 per cent now, jumping to 20 per cent next year.
       The number of sales agents will increase from 22 to 50 by yearend, and they will be the main driver for the estimated higher market share, said Pawan.
       The company will not be affected if the Thailand Futures Exchange decides to reduce the size of goldfutures contracts from 50 baht weight to 10 baht, in order to solicit retail investors.
       "We must admit it would be a major move to cut the size of the futures conฌtract to 10 baht weight each. It would make an impact on physicalgold traders, because more retail investors would turn to the papergold market. We've spoken with physicalgold traders in India, and they say about 20 per cent of them shut down each year in the first five years following the inauฌguration of the goldfutures market," she said.
       Meanwhile, according to Bloomberg, gold gained in London as the dollar weakened against the euro, increasing the metal's appeal as an alternative investment.
       The dollar fell as much as 0.4 per cent against the euro as a report showed German business confidence rose to a 12month high this month. Bullion has climbed 15 per cent so far this year, while the dollar, which on Wednesday slid to its lowest level in a year against the single European curฌrency, has lost 5.4 per cent.
       "The dollar and risk sentiment will continue to lead gold in coming sesฌsions," James Moore, an analyst at BullionDesk.com in London, said in a note. Bullion is "well placed to set fresh highs", he said.
       Immediate-delivery bullion rose $6.25, or 0.6 per cent, to $1,014.65 an ounce late yesterday morning. December gold futures were 0.2percent higher at $1,016.10 on the New York Mercantile Exchange's Comex Division.
       The metal rose to $1,014 an ounce in yesterday morning's "fixing" in London, used by some mining compaฌnies to sell production, from $1,010.25 at Wednesday afternoon's fixing. Spot prices are trading 1.7 below a record $1,032.70 set in March 2008.
       The US Federal Reserve yesterday said it would keep interest rates low for an "extended period". It also said it would slow its purchases of mortgage securities, seeking to avoid disrupting the housing market as an economic recovery takes hold.